Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3709 · TPA → PVD
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 33%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±1 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.