Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4624 · BNA → JAX
departs 7:00 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.