Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4888
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4888 · HOU → DCA
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.73 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.