Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
YX 3501 · GRR → EWR
departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at GRR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.30 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.