Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
YX 4402 · CMH → DCA
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 28%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.