Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

YX 4402 · CMH → DCA

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.42 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4402 · CMH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?