Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4702
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4702 · DCA → LGA
departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 7:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 52%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.