Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4702
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4702 · DCA → LGA
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Fri 10/2 60%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 33%
Wed 10/7 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.