YX 5763 · DCA → LGA

departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5763 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?