Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1775 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1775 · CLT → SDF

departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SDF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1775 · CLT → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?