Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1775 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1775 · CLT → SDF

departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SDF that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.57 in

SDF (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1775 · CLT → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?