Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

AA 1809 · CLT → AVP

departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at AVP more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AVP?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AVP

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ AVP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

AVP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1809 · CLT → AVP

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVP?