Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2054 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2054 · MIA → LGA

departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2054 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?