Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2054 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2054 · MIA → LGA

departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2054 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?