Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2054 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2054 · MIA → LGA

departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2054 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?