Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3813 · AVL → ORD
departs 7:11 AM ET · arrives 8:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.