Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3813 · AVL → ORD
departs 7:11 AM ET · arrives 8:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at AVL that day
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.05 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.