Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3813 · AVL → ORD
departs 7:11 AM ET · arrives 8:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at AVL that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 1.43 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.