Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 3871 · XNA → CLT
departs 8:51 AM CT · arrives 12:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 7%
Fri 10/9 7%
Sat 10/10 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from XNA are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.54 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.