Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 4158 · LIT → CLT
departs 7:09 AM CT · arrives 10:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −27 pts in 24h
−27 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIT that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.97 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.