Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 4158 · LIT → CLT
departs 7:09 AM CT · arrives 10:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.