Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5098 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5098 · DCA → BTV

departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at BTV that day

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

BTV (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5098 · DCA → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?