OH 5098 · DCA → DTW

departs 3:13 PM ET · arrives 5:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±5 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.09 in

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5098 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?