Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4859 · HOU → MIA
departs 9:00 PM CT · arrives 12:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.41 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.