Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4405 · CMH → DCA
departs 12:10 PM ET · arrives 1:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.46 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.