Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4405 · CMH → DCA
departs 12:32 PM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.