Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4405 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

YX 4405 · CMH → DCA

departs 12:32 PM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4405 · CMH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?