Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4515 · HHH → DCA
departs 11:07 AM ET · arrives 12:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
40%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +40 pts in 24h
+40 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
40%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
11am departures from HHH are usually not late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HHH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.