Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4515 · HHH → DCA
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 12:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HHH
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DCA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
10am departures from HHH are usually not late
Weather at each end
HHH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.28 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.