Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4515 · HHH → DCA
departs 11:07 AM ET · arrives 12:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↓
11am departures from HHH are usually not late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HHH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.76 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.