Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2196 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2196 · MIA → MSY

departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2196 · MIA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?