Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2196 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2196 · MIA → MSY

departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2196 · MIA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?