Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 2215 · SJU → TPA
departs 5:22 PM AT · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SJU are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.