Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 2215 · SJU → TPA
departs 5:22 PM AT · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 10/3 40%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SJU are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.