Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3605 · JAX → MIA
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8.4 mi Precip 0.31 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.