Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Saturday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 200 LANDED 6:08 PM HT, ~1 MIN LATE

Saturday, October 3

UA 200 · GUM → HNL

took off 7:19 AM ChST · landed 6:08 PM HT (scheduled 7:05 AM ChST → 6:15 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 29h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 53 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at GUM that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↓ 7am departures from GUM are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts53 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.58 in

HNL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 200 · GUM → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?