Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3450 · CLT → EWR
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
2pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.83 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.