Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3450 · CLT → EWR
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 0.03 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.