Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4515 · DCA → HHH
departs 8:26 AM ET · arrives 10:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HHH
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into HHH at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.21 in
HHH (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.