Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4515 · DCA → HHH
departs 8:39 AM ET · arrives 10:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into HHH at that hour are usually not late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.46 in
HHH (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.