Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4515 · DCA → HHH
departs 8:39 AM ET · arrives 10:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Arrivals into HHH at that hour are usually not late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.666667 mi Precip none
HHH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.