Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2347 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2347 · ALB → DCA

departs 3:32 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ALB

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ALB (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2347 · ALB → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?