Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1413
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
B6 1413 · MVY → DCA
departs 3:09 PM ET · arrives 4:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 36%
Wed 10/7 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MVY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.03 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.