Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 8
TK 157 · IST → MIA
departs 1:51 AM +03 · arrives 7:14 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8
Sun 10/11 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
↓
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.