Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1004 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 8:51 PM ET (37 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Monday, October 12 Today

AA 1004 · BOS → DCA

departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.31 in

DCA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1004 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?