tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 1004 · BOS → DCA

departs 7:58 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
27% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.8d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to DCA?

  1. On time or early
    72%
  2. 15–30 min late
    8%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    5%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    11%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.