AC 733 · LGA → YUL

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 4:54 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YUL usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into YUL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.08 in

YUL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 733 · LGA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?