Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 733 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AC 733 · LGA → YUL

departs 3:28 PM ET · arrives 5:17 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 733 · LGA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?