Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 733 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AC 733 · LGA → YUL

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 5:18 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 733 · LGA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?