AA 956 · MIA → GCM

took off 12:49 PM ET · landed 1:06 PM EST (scheduled 12:28 PM ET → 1:10 PM EST)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at GCM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GCM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into GCM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

GCM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 956 · MIA → GCM

Odds over time

How late did it get to GCM?